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Monday, April 27, 2009

Preparing for an outbreak

I'm trying real hard to not get too wrapped around the axle on this swine flu thing, but it certainly does pose the closest thing to a pandemic than we've seen in a while. What are you doing to cope? Are you keeping up on the news or trying to avoid it altogether?

I suspect it also depends on what area of the country you live in, and if you live in an area with known cases, but how apprehensive are you about an epidemic? Do you feel like your municipality and hospitals could handle large numbers of infected people?

Have you started stocking up more on food in case of a quarantine or will you wait until things look a little more dire?

If you are freaking out about this thing, Sharon has some words of wisdom to share that may make you feel better.

63 Crunchy Thoughts:

Midnightsky Fibers said...

I am not changing anything and am not that concerned about it.

I am not sure how to make that sound less blunt.

Absolute worst case scenario we have a place to go away from the city, and have plenty of food here and there, plus access to medical care.

knittinandnoodlin said...

I'm not looking. I'm on a self-imposed media blackout because I don't want to put any more worry/energy into it (or the economy, for that matter). There is nothing I can do about any of it except feel comfortable that I've prepared.

If it gets to a point where I need to know, I'm sure I'll find out.

Farmer's Daughter said...

I'm very comfortable with the medical services available in my area. We're only about 20 minutes or so from Yale and other hospitals, in all different directions.

That said, I'm pretty sure we'll be okay, and I'm confident that health care workers are taking the necessary steps to avoid pandemic. I think they're well prepared after the avian scares a few years ago. We teach about this stuff in school, and so with the research I've done I'm feeling good about the outlook.

But you won't see me at an airport any time soon...

Jamie said...

I think there are much more scary things to worry about - tuberculosis, whooping cough making a comeback, measles showing up again...

The people who have gotten it here aren't even dying - they're all recovering, it seems. No need to get all paranoid about something that seems very treatable, in this country anyways.

scifichick said...

I am not changing anything as of now, at least. I haven't even read about it over the weekend, so I didn't realize what a big deal it was. I don't think we've head any cases in my area, so I think we are all set. We will be flying in a couple of weeks though and it's not something we can change. I will just make sure to remind everyone to wash their hands, but I don't see what else we can do.

katie z said...

I'm near several cases, so we've definitely talked about restricting taking our children out in public. The threat of pandemic also spurred my husband to take care of some bulk food shopping that required a trip for us - it's done, and we're ready!

Jenipurr said...

You know, it's just so hard to keep track of what I'm supposed to be panicking about next. SARS? Bird Flu? Swine Flu? West Nile virus?

Or in other words, I have absolutely no intention of changing anything, or of worrying about it.

Laura said...

I have been on a low mass media diet for a long time now. It has been working pretty well for me stress and information wise. I get my hysteria filtered through the few blogs that I read.
I am not hearing the pigs squeal right behind me but I am listening on the wind to see if there is anything I should logically do to protect myself and loved's.

As for Seattle's ability to handle a large scale medical crisis. Meh. I don't have any great expectations. Maybe if I keep my expectations low I will be pleasantly surprised.

And I just finished reading World Made By Hand a few days ago. I'm not sure if that's helping or hurting. It had me rapt though, so I would say that it was a good read.

Amber said...

I am not looking. While I realize that this may become serious, for now I think that there's more panic than is warranted in my local area.

I am glad I'm breastfeeding my baby right now, though. It's good to know that he at least has that level of protection going for him.

Kristi said...

I'm keeping an eye on it. Having a diabetic son, I fear any kind of flu virus, as it would send his blood sugar to abnormal levels and may require a trip to the hospital. I'm also going to stock up on his supplies, especially the things needed for when he does get sick - something I normally do in the fall, not the spring.

I made my normal warehouse store run today, and stocked up on things that I normally would've waited a week or two on, but that's it for now.

Joyce said...

I'm not worried. I did think that if we were all three sick for a few days, we wouldn't want to run to the store very much, or do any big-time cooking, so I stocked up on canned soups and such things so we could just heat up something quick in the microwave if we need to. I also made sure we had plenty of tp, kleenex, and Tylenol to make it for a few days. I assume we'll get sick, and then we'll get well, and that will be that.

Joyce said...

I should add that my assumption that we'll get sick is based on the fact that I live in a university town, and plenty of those kids went to Mexico for spring break. My husband works on campus, my daughter teaches in a school full of little children who forget to cover their mouths when they cough, and I'm around large groups in my job, too. If it comes here, we'll get it, no dounbt.

Perplexed said...

I haven't paid much attention to be honest. I grew up with "depression era" parents and have always had a well stocked food pantry. I work with the public and because of a child that has had a compromised immune system I usually am pretty cautious with boundaries.

Greenpa said...

Best thing to do; keep track of what is actually known by checking here: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

They're the ones with the real hard up to date info.

The info is in technical jargon, though; so you may need some help interpreting.

For example, they are careful to call THIS flu "swine influenza A (H1N1)".

Which reminds everyone reading of why people are taking this threat seriously. It's NOT a "swine flu" - this virus is a mixture of 2 strains of swine flu; a human influenza A; and- the H1N1 bird flu; which is, indeed, the killer.

Pretty much ALL the information available in the mainstream right now is - lightweight. The fact that none of the USA cases have been lethal means- nothing.

It's not very serious today. It could become deadly serious- tomorrow. Or it could fizzle and go away.

One of the bigger effects is likely to be- panic. Hoarding. So if you're worried- don't wait until everybody else panics. Remember; in a disaster; he who panics first, panics best.

:-)

Kristijoy said...

Thing I am most concerned about, atm anayways, is if panic does spread here the way it is in Mexico City, is that my place of work would probably close and/or be severely affected by people not visiting us.

I work at a large science museum and we are heading into spring field trip time. The economic situation and a winter storm has already resulted in the loss of jobs and pay for us all and well, I want to keep my job. And I kind of need to get paid too.

And of course where I work IS a risk due to it's public nature and mobs of charming yet germ infested children. I am only just recovering from a nasty cold virus as I speak. =)

It seems like all the severe and deadly cases re in Mexico city and no one elsewhere has yet to die.

I am mildly concerned it has affected the 25-45 age group hardest. But until this thing hits quadruple digits in more than one location with an unusual death toll, I am not going to worry too much until there is due cause.

I do feel for the folks who's lives are disrupted in Mexico, they only just had an earthquake on top of it all today. I have an online acquaintance on Ravelry, who works for a local chapter of the WHO in Mexico City and she's been feeding us all up to the minute info on everything there, when she has break that is.

FernWise said...

I DID buy something extra while at the store yesterday - canned frosting. It wasn't even on sale, nor did I have a coupon.

Then again, I might have just done it because I was shopping while hungry.

Fern

Lisa Sharp said...

I'm doing monthly shopping Friday. And stocking up on homeopathic flu meds. Not freaking out but washing hands more and such. Things I would do with normal flu. I never get the flu shot so it's not that different for me. I am high risk because of asthma and other chronic health problems.

Emily said...

Sheesh, a recession that reads a lot like 'the great depression' and now a flu pandemic... what next locusts???
I try not to watch too much of the news - I will check out that govt site instead.
I am afraid but I will still go to work - and I will stock up my pantry. What are you going to do, probably still have more chance of being killed in your car.
This curtails my plan to do mostly bin shopping at whole foods - too many hands in the mix.

Kiashu said...

I anticipate that in the case of a genuine pandemic - not just the potential for one we see now - that we'd have some months of disruption to world trade and travel.

I don't expect to be cut off from the world or regular food supply, just that things might become pricier and harder to get.

So the stocking up I'm doing is just to get things while they're cheap, and before people see the rising prices and panic-buy.

We've also seen here Down Under in the past decade that years of poor maintenance have made utilities not as reliable as they used to be. Loss of one of electricity, gas or water has happened to whole cities for a week, or parts of cities for a month.

So it's prudent to have your home set up so that you can go without one of your three basic utilities for up to 7 days. Batteries for radios, a water tank of several hundred litres, maybe a gas bbq with a full bottle or woodstove with lots of spare wood or coal, and so on.

I agree with the women who are on a low mass media diet. The simple fact is that not enough happens in the world over a day that they can talk about it for an hour, so they have to get a bit looney about something - Anna Nicole Smith's death, Obama's new dog, swine flu, or whatever. They have to focus on one thing and talk it up.

Real world events of importance move much more slowly than the 24 hour news cycle. I mean even WWII was six years, or nine years if you were Chinese or Japanese. Imagine WWII in the modern news, one German machinegun post holding up some battalion's advance would suddenly become defeat for us all.

Be prudent and prepare, but be patient and unhurried, I say.

blondeoverboard said...

we're taking it all in stride. there's not much point in spending energy worrying. the pantry is full. i've suggested to family and friends that they pick up a few things at the store. the next 7 days are important. do cases in mexico escalate or do they plateau.. only time will tell. that being said, my 11 yr old has been feeling like crap all day. achy, sore throat, runny nose, coughing. thus far no fever. it could be allergies, it could be a cold. tomorrow we'll see the dr and go from there.

kingsq said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_Flu#1976_U.S._outbreak

Shreela said...

I live in Houston, 200 miles from the eight San Antonio cases. Houston "has the third-largest Hispanic population in the United States" (wikipedia). Per hubby, at least half of his coworkers are some kind of Hispanic.

So when I saw numerous mentions of the Swine Flu coming through my feeds and tweets, I decided I should finish my yearly hurricane preps I do every late-spring or early-summer, since if there's a mass panic, I won't be able to do my hurricane preps. I had already bought quite a bit of canned meat a few weeks ago (I've been prepping in batches the last few years).

After Sundays shopping, the only things I bought that weren't hurricane prep related were gloves, antimicrobial wipes, and 2 boxes of N95 masks (2/box), which were surprisingly cheap (<$3/box). Those gloves WILL be used eventually, even if we never wear them due to an outbreak.

Hubby laughed at me when he saw them, and asked why I didn't buy hazmat suits instead. But the news on Monday morning talked about the schools being closed, people in Mexico and airports already wearing masks, and how local stores were already running out of masks.

So I spent $4-5 extra, knowing there'd be a run on them. Everything else I bought is either for hurricanes like last year with Ike, or will get used later on next winter.

I hope we'll never use the masks, and we'll laugh at my buying them later on. But I feel $4-5 and a small bit of paranoia for one day was worth it should there be an outbreak like China had with SARS.

Jennifer said...

Was it just me or did my daughter's teacher give me a funny look when I confirmed my mom is coming to visit this week?

I'm trying not to get sucked too deep into this. Fortunately I have a house to clean, a new house to hunt for, work, and parenting to keep my mind otherwise occupied. I am stocking up on enough food and supplies to keep 4 people going for a couple weeks in case we are quarantined while my mom is visiting.

Rjs said...

Well, as I work in healthcare, I pay more attention to it than most. However, I refuse to give in to panic.

In our home, we came to the consensus that we will refill clean juice bottles with water and store in the garage (NPR reported yesterday that Mexico City was close to a shutdown and was giving extra support to water and utilities during the crisis). For now, though, that's all we're doing.

M said...

I live in Southern California and heading to a city where Swine Flu is being tested for this weekend for a college reunion! I also regularly ride the train/subway system in Los Angeles, so I do have to admit I probably am a little more susceptible than some others. I am not really doing anything differently now though - I don't really have a choice without a car or the ability to work from home and without concrete evidence of an immediate issue. I really don't think medical services here in LA would be prepared because there are simply so many people and as it stands they have problems treating everyone that needs help on a normal basis. I've been checking up on the WHO and CDC websites to keep an eye on things. While I don't think it is an immediate threat, I also know that they are at the front end of this whole thing and there is still a great deal being found out.

I do have a well stocked pantry however, but I think that's a good idea in general for countless reasons.

Rosa said...

I refilled our water storage containers (I'd been waiting for this time of year anyway - i watered the garden with the old stored water and refilled all the containers.)

Also the 24/7 swine flu coverage has convinced my partner to start washing his hands regularly. Raised by an RN and still he hasn't learned to wash his hands thoroughly before he handles food.

So those are the changes we're making; the stuff we should have been doing anyway.

Rosa said...

oh! I forgot one - I made sure I had the rehydrating drink recipe I used to use when our little guy got puking illness all the time.

The best early treatment for flu is hydration and rest, no matter what kind of flu it is. And since it's made out of salt & sugar, just having the recipe written down is all I need (color-free coolaid powder makes it taste better, though)

Lyanda said...

My main thought this week is entirely self-involved: I'm glad we got back from our travels in the Yucatan last Monday JUST before we heard about swine flu! This week I would not have put my daughter on a plane to Mexico. Because I just got back from Mexico, though, I keep imagining I have flu symptoms (I don't actually have any), and I'm keeping an eye on my daughter.

Anisa @ the Schell Urban Homestead said...

We're not panicing. We can't really afford to stock up the pantry for two months worth of food.... we have plenty of frozen stuff to get us by though if that were ever necessary, I suppose.

But I do think there's a lot of undue panic going on. I admit that I haven't followed the news on this much: we don't really watch TV, and there are so many more interesting things to read about. ;)

I just can't bring myself to worry about it.

agreenfire said...

Im reading up on it. I have no doubt the doctors in my area would be overrun if it comes here. We do not have plentiful health care in my area.
I am not stocking up, and I'm not panicked. We have no cases in my state so far.

Poppycole said...

Mainly trying not to think about it but at the same time preparing for the worst just in case. My family lives in the Schertz-Cibolo area, the place where the flu has already been discovered. My brother goes to boy scouts with one of the kids who was affected.

Makes me think that if cases continue to grow in little ol Schertz then it won't be long before they start to show up here in Houston. My hometown has literally shut-down: 14 schools closed for a week, churches closed, public parks, etc closed.

My parents said most stores are empty. They have been washing their hands, staying inside trying to avoid people with the exception of a trip to the grocery store. I talked to my mom and she said the newspaper said 40 more people were diagnosed in town since yesterday.

As for me, I'm staying away as hard as it is. I haven't been exposed to it like they have and am the only one in the family in the danger zone per say(the age zone that people are dying in Mexico: (20s-40s).

I did go out and get hand sanitizer and stock up on groceries. Frankly, I'd rather avoid the panic later if and when it does hit here. I also picked up a natural immune booster called Sambucol available at CVS.

So right now just hunkering down and trying not to think about it too much. Praying it stays as mild as it has been.

Anonymous said...

Food Security...

Mexico produces a huge amount of ‘cheap’ food consumed in America. While I am not yet, concerned with the quality of food arriving from south of the border, I am considering the potential impact on the labor force that produces that food. If, and if H1N1 becomes a major viral hurricane. And what that could mean for us...

So, yes, I am concerned. And also spend a ‘ton’ of time encouraging the development of local food security...

Possible origin of the current H1N1 virus:

http://www.grist.org/article/2009-04-25-swine-flu-smithfield/

Anonymous said...

I lived in Toronto during the SARS epidemic - life continued pretty much as normal with, perhaps, a step-up in the normal precautions one should take to remain healthy -frequent handwashing, not sharing anything that touched the mouth, staying away from obviously sick people and so on. Most of us survived - in fact, almost all of us.

JenHarper said...

I wasn't panicking until I read your post.

Chile said...

We're already pretty well prepared for emergencies but I stocked up on a couple of things that had run low as we prepared for a summer move (which is not going to happen). I'm using alcohol hand sanitizer when out in public and avoiding being out more than necessary.

Since I'm close to the border with a large Hispanic population, many with family in Mexico, it's only a matter of time until it gets here. Whether it will become epidemic? Don't know. I'm not positive our community hospitals could handle everyone as the emergency rooms seem overloaded on a normal day. However, I'm sure if I asked my friend who works at one of the local hospitals, she'd tell me they were very prepared.

Maeve said...

Well, pandemics were/are so awful because people *don't* have time to prepare. I have been reading the news (mainly from sites such as the CDC and WHO) because I want to be informed... and I don't need my information to come from news banner blips.

Given the timeline, I don't feel alarmed. And in another week or two, "the proof will be in the pudding".. either there will be a lot more cases because it takes up to two weeks for flu viruses to incubate, or the whole thing will be mostly fizzled out.

Meanwhile, if it does get worse I wouldn't want to have to run to the store. So I went through my medicine chest and picked up new packets of missing or expired items. And I added some food to my pantry (which was getting a bit sparse here & there, so I needed to add to my food storage a bit anyhow).

Later in the week I'll probably wipe down all the doorknobs and light switches and things, but I try to do that a few times throughout the winter and spring months anyway. There are plenty of local outbreaks of all sorts of things, from head colds to tummy upsets, to make doing this a "matter of course" thing and not a "OMG the sky is falling!" panic cleaning.

Anonymous said...

I am keeping an eye on this now to see how things develop. I have suggested to some friends, and plan to follow my own advice over the next 48 hours, to stock up at least 2 weeks worth of food for the family. The way I see it is that if things take a turn for the worse it would be a good idea to avoid public places, like grocery stores. I wish I had a country place to disappear to if needed, but oh well.

My tip to everyone is to buy lots of food to avoid the temptation of being forced to go to a store because of a hungry tummy.

Anonymous said...

"But there's another way to look at those statistics. You might observe, for example, that they mean that even during the worst ravages of the 1918 flu, 97.5 per cent of those infected survived and recovered. Or that 72 per cent of the population -- even in the absence of the sophisticated public health planning and infrastructure that Canada and the U.S. have since built -- was not infected during the pandemic.

So, even if we had a repeat of the 1918 flu, the chances were seven out of 10 that you wouldn't catch it and if you did, the odds were better than nine out of 10 that you'd survive.

That was during the worst pandemic of the modern era and one which occurred in the days before the instantaneous communications of radio, television and the Web enabled quick public health responses. "

http://boingboing.net/
EJ

Greenpa said...

EJ - sure. But. The problem with statistics is - they really do NOT apply to you; as an individual.

For example- given Spouse's genetics, and mine- the probability of my son having Type 1 Diabetes is calculated at 1/10,000.

Pretty good odds, yes? But- for him, the chances are 100%. He has it; probabilities, or not.

Crunchy Chicken said...

EJ - Yes, those are the statistics for the 1918 swine flu. But this is a different strain of flu, one that includes bird flu (see Greenpa's earlier comment) so you can't use those statistics for anything but an historical record. Just like you can't use them for the SARS outbreak or the bird flu outbreak for their survivability rates. These things mutate into something wholly unseen before.

Anyway, unless this thing burns out quickly (which is often the case with swine flu), I would start mentally preparing yourself for a disruption in services in your area. It hasn't hit WA yet, but when it does I'm sure closing the schools won't be too far behind.

Call me paranoid, but I'm slowly stocking up. Just in case.

Greenpa said...

We have 2 schools closed in Minnesota today - on "probable" swine flu- something not hitting national press yet. Small towns, 80 miles north of the Twin Cities.

Greenpa said...

oh, and Crunchie - "Call me paranoid, but"

One of my all-time favorite cartoons- this king is sitting on his throne; looking much like Rodin's The Thinker: caption - "I'm paranoid...... but am I paranoid enough?"

:-)

Farmer's Daughter said...

I thought the 1918 flu was chicken, not swine... anybody know for sure?

Anonymous said...

One thing that I found out today is that there has been a run on hand sanitizer. None of the stores in town have any left on the shelves. I work with kids and have run out at school so have raided my personal emergency supply kit so we can have some in class.

Crunchy Chicken said...

I know the 1918 was a bird flu, but not sure about the chicken part. Are you pointing fingers?

Farmer's Daughter said...

Hehe, didn't even think of that...

I'm pretty sure it was chicken (at least that's what the former microbiologist turned science teacher told me at work).

Kelsie said...

Not to digress from the Flying Pig Flu, but is it time for us to sweat our lungs out (or whatever the challenge is called) yet? It's been in the 80s here and my neighbors have been running their a/c 24/7, so I'm having my own challenge. :)

Susannah said...

Approximately 30,000 people die every year in the United States due to the flu, the regular old, run of the mill, flu. There's no need to flip out over this one. Eat healthy, wash your hands, cover your mouth when you cough/sneeze, basic hygeine folks. There are much worse things to get upset over...like impending zombie attacks. I hate those.

Crunchy Chicken said...

Kelsie - Not quite yet. Keep your pants on, or take them off if you're too hot.

Susannah - Unfortunately, for many of us, this is something to flip over. My mom has chronic lung disease and my husband has a new immune system from having two stem cell transplants over the last year for a fairly nasty cancer. So, getting swine flu for them is deadly business. Which means if I get sick and the kids get sick, there's no one to help us.

Anyway, it looks like there are three probable cases of swine flu in Seattle. I just got a phone call from the Seattle Public School District stating that the schools will remain open as the child (one of the suspected "victims") wasn't at school while sick.

Which means nothing really since he was probably contagious before showing symptoms. Oh, the fun continues...

Laura said...

Uhm. I got a cold today. Started with a wee sore throat. Now on to bit of a headache but not too horrible. Runny nose, and such.
Trying to rest and get well but I've got a bit more worry going than when I made the comment above.

Nature Deva said...

There was a report about a hospital in CA in April'05 where a flu broke out in the hospital and a large majority of patients came down with it except for one wing. Not one person contracted the flu in this wing bec. a doctor was conducting a study with Vitamin D and every patient was taking Vitamin D3 supplements (the kind you get from the sun). It strengthens your immune system and they've found it can ward off cancer and other diseases, too.

If you work indoors or live in a not very sunny place, they suggest year round supplementation. I live in a sunny place but still take D3 in liquid drop form every day. 1 drop on the tongue = 2,000 i.u.

D3 can take a while to build back up in your system to an adequate level if you are very depleted which, it turns out, many people are.

A strong, natural anti-viral is Elderberry. You can get it in concentrated syrup form and add it to your juice or water. I found this to be the easiest way for me to get my 5 yr old to take it. He also doesn't mind the D3 drop on his tongue.

These are just a couple of simple, inexpensive things that will help strengthen your immune system daily as well as good nutrition, sleep, limit your refined sugar intake, exercise and hand washing can keep a person healthy from many things including a flu. We are exposed to many threats everyday but a strong immune system takes care of it for us.

Anonymous said...

Kelsie - Not quite yet. Keep your pants on, or take them off if you're too hot.

... Well, this discussion about H1N1, has taken an interesting turn...

Personally, I would vote on the naming the next challenge as, 'Keep Your Pants On If You Can Challenge...'

Anonymous said...

Nature Deva. Thanks for the vitamin D info!!!!

I love this!!!

Maybe you solved the next challenge contest... 'Take Your Pants and Clothes Off... when you can and absorb as much vitamin D as possible to build up your immune system...' H1N1 holistic preparedness at its best...

I cannot wait to use this argument against the nude body prudes of the world, that feel that being naked is an evil and sinful act...

Anonymous said...

Nature Deva?

You have a link to that article about the hospital?

Thanks!!!

Anonymous said...

Discussion on Vitamin D and immune protection to influenza:

http://heartscanblog.blogspot.com/

Crunchy Chicken said...

Here's a paper by the doctor who had the patients who didn't get sick - the ones taking Vitamin D. For what it's worth... I suppose it couldn't hurt to take more Vitamin D, but remember it is fat soluble and you can take too much.

Anonymous said...

More on Vitamin D:

Scientific American.

http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=vitamin-d-deficiency-linked-to-more-2009-02-23

Dawn said...

re the virus composition.

If I've extracted the meaning of what I've read over at flutrackers, the genome of the virus shows it is swine virus. the avian and human component were "added in" some time ago, but it is a novel combination of swine viruses.

The way that particular bit has been reported is quite confusing/misleading.

Dawn said...

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=102129

There's a link to the virus composition.

Anonymous said...

Factory Farming = Viral Diseases.

1998 Origins of H1N1:

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/05/swineflufarm/

Anonymous said...

My son's school just closed for 3 days until a probable cause can be tested. Hopefully, it will turn out to be nothing.

Laurie in Mpls. said...

Rosa (or anyone, really):
Any chance we could get you to share that rehydrating fluid recipe? Or point us towards a reference with recipe? I understand the basic principle, but would like directions (or at least proportions) to follow. Just in case one of us gets the "bodily fluids everywhere" type bug, "swine" flu or other. :)

Mariella said...

Swine flus been over hyped by the media. HIV is more of a pandemic threat (and it's already in virtually every country) than swine flu. the only thing with any flu-type virus is that it spreads airborne so is more contagious. where as aids is only caught from infected blood and sexual fluid... if that makes any sense...

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