As one dear reader stated in response, "I'm not going to be too concerned yet, as I'm not one to succumb to sensationalism." So, when should we be concerned? And, if we "environmentalists", who represent such a tiny fraction of the population aren't concerned yet, what about the rest of the consumptive Americans who don't give a flying fig about it and plan on continuing with their high-impact lifestyles as long as their wallet supports them?
I may bitch and moan incessantly about James Kunstler and his wayward gloom and doom idea of the future, but it's mostly because I believe he's painting a picture of how he really wants society to be: anti-suburbia, anti-commercialism and anti-everything that smacks of modern Americanism. But, if it's rural and homey and self-sufficient then it's okay. I think it's personal cherry picking. But, then again, we are all guilty of that to some extent.
In the comments of Sunday's post I also see that even the doomers are in a sort of denial, believing it won't be that bad or they won't be as affected as is stated in the article. The question then becomes, how do we pick our doom and gloom scenario or do we, as the aforementioned reader wishes, just plug along waiting for something far more obvious and intractable to show us the path?
Let me also suggest that, even under generous calculations, if 10% of the population was willing to take on the Riot for Austerity and cut their emissions by 90% of what the average person in the US consumes, that still leaves a hoarkingly huge 90% of exhaust spewing America to sink our personal efforts. If what we really need is a grand edict, governmental or otherwise, to turn this around, what do the 10% get for selling the car, unplugging the fridge, wiping our butts with cloth toilet paper and line drying our clothes? Just as bleak a future, I presume.
I thought it, unfortunately, fitting that James Lovelock has a very curmudgeonly response regarding eco ideas, ethical consumption, carbon offsetting, recycling and so on:
This is, Lovelock says, a deluded fantasy. Most of the things we have been told to do might make us feel better, but they won't make any difference. Global warming has passed the tipping point, and catastrophe is unstoppable.
"It's just too late for it," he says. "Perhaps if we'd gone along routes like that in 1967, it might have helped. But we don't have time. All these standard green things, like sustainable development, I think these are just words that mean nothing. ...
This is all delivered with an air of benign wonder at the intractable stupidity of people. "I see it with everybody. People just want to go on doing what they're doing. They want business as usual. They say, 'Oh yes, there's going to be a problem up ahead,' but they don't want to change anything."
Lovelock believes global warming is now irreversible, and that nothing can prevent large parts of the planet becoming too hot to inhabit, or sinking underwater, resulting in mass migration, famine and epidemics. ... To Lovelock, the logic is clear. The sustainability brigade are insane to think we can save ourselves by going back to nature; our only chance of survival will come not from less technology, but more.
Finally, what does Lovelock suggest we do instead of the seemingly insignificant attempts at eco-living? "Enjoy life while you can. Because if you're lucky it's going to be 20 years before it hits the fan."
Many other individuals feel that the train has already left the station and there's not much we can do at this point other than plan for the inevitable. If, indeed, making an attempt to reduce consumption and emissions really amounts to assuaging our own guilt, keeping us busy and making us feel we have a purpose regardless of how useful it is, why bother? Should we be enjoying life while we can, regardless of the environmental cost since it, apparently, might not matter?
Would our energies be better spent in learning and teaching others how to prepare for the climate impacts already on the way? We are going to see dramatic impacts to fisheries, forestry, agriculture, power generation, transportation systems (road infrastructure and fuel costs), water quality, public health and emergency services.
I see many people hunkering down, learning how to live sustainably, but are we learning the right things? The 1970s living-off-the-land ideals works fine for our current climate, but will these techniques suffice in a more arid, population-dense world? It seems to me that it would be far more effective to learn about growing food in very small spaces, using crops that require minimal water and energy input with high calorie output, etc.
The idea of growing cattle or large food animals seems rather ridiculous. As the article states, most of humanity will need to adapt to a more vegetarian lifestyle with very small amounts of animal protein. The animals that do get used for food sources will need to be ones that can handle dry areas of desertification on the fringes of population and can subsist on low-quality food sources and require minimal water, much like the crops that we will rely on.
Farming, as we know it in the lower 48, will most likely cease to exist and we will look to, and rely on, methods of crop growing used by people living in the arid areas of the world. The difference is that there will be a much reduced amount of land to work with. So, becoming a nation of farmers is one thing, but that assumes that there is arable land and water to work with. And, well, a nation, for that matter.
One thing I wonder about is, many municipalities are planning on preparing for these sorts of climate changes, yet the findings are generally not "advertised" to the public. Is this to prevent widespread panic? I think if more of these sorts of reports were made obvious to the public, people might do more than just change their light bulbs.
Where am I going with this awfully rambling post? I really don't know, but I'm thinking that a focus on learning what's in store for your area and how to adapt to the climate/geological/political changes in your area are going to be more useful than discussing the merits of line-drying clothes and techniques for how to tan the hides of animals that won't exist in the wild anymore.
What about you? What do you want to do to prepare? Or is this all just too much to ponder or too far into the future to concern yourselves with?

53 Crunchy Thoughts:
I'll admit to being overwhelmed by all this, even though I have been and will continue to practice "living lightly." I do think, however, that exactly what the American people need is knowledge:our municipalities, government, whatever, letting everyone know how bad it could really get. Because all the average person hears is that we might run out of oil and they will end up having to drive an electric car. Wheeee! Uh, that doesn't really cut it and I think it just makes people complacent that whatever the environment throws at us, our government can handle, which, obviously, is really ignorant.
Another great post, Crunchers.
Personally, I tend to vacillate between despair and really deep despair usually depending on how recently I've read Knustler's weekly Monday morning screed.
Dude is a serious downer, in part because he's certainly been right about predicting the current financial meltdown.
For a few years I've mostly been concerned about peak oil and energy issues, but climate change is, I think, going to be the more immediate cause of stress to our systems.
Can a few of us make a difference on climate change? Probably not -- particularly when we have our elected leaders (thanks, Obama) telling us that the "American way of life is non-negotiable."
But I've got to hope that by getting prepared and learning and doing what we can now, any transitions will be easier for us few.
I'm glad to see you blogging about this. That article threw me for a loop as well. I have a couple of thoughts about the New Scientist article.
1. For us, and anyone in their 30s and younger, we will be living the first big transition. But I don't know that it will necessarily play out like a Terminator movie. To get to New Scientist's world map will take gradual changes. It won't be like we wake up tomorrow and boom! time to move to Canada or Russia.
I think of the coming changes in terms of outliers. First, the hot, arid areas (i.e. the SW US) will become unsustainable. So those people will migrate to Northern US. At some point, the Great Lakes dry up (according to the research I've done) but this will probably be part of the end game, so I suspect the Northern US will be stable for a good 50 to 150 years or so.
This will be good in some regards. This kind of migration will create economic activity which we will sorely need. Housing values will rise again. It also means national borders will be sustainable for a while, which I'm hoping bodes well for geopolitical stability. Because we are going to have enough changes to deal with without adding new countries to the mix.
2. What I find striking about the NS article is who will be producing food and who will be producing energy. Granted, it's a prediction, but the US become desert will likely be used to farm solar power for use in areas that are farming food. There will be haves who can grow food, but have not the ability to create energy. And haves who can produce energy, but not grow food, at least not on a large scale.
So I don't know that it will be that new desert areas become completely irrelevant or devoid of population. Somebody has to man the power grid as espoused by NS.
Also, the food-energy dichotomy presented by NS really makes the case that the US needs to be a technology leader in alternative energy if we want to survive as a nation. Developing green industry and proprietary energy technologies is going to directly impact our personal and national security.
3.I don't think global climate change reads NS so to expect it to come to heel is probably not realistic. There's a margin of error with all of this, however, given that climate change is fact, the spectrum of possibilities are all kind of crappy. It's likely to be worse than predicted, not better. Especially since NS seems to think we're going to set aside centuries of geopolitics and sing kum-ba-ya. For example, Africa is one big resource war and there seems to be great willingness there to let people die of thirst and starvation in exchange for power and control.
3.As for what people should do. Well figure out what the future is for your area. Look at 20 years, 50 years and 100 years. Look at not just your lifetime but that of your children and their children. I suspect from here on out each generation is going to face some big changes. For us, we are trying to anticipate those changes. Do we need to move? If so where? If not, will our daughter or her children? What do we need to know/do? What do our children need to know/do? This is the kind of assessment we are making. From it, we hope to come up with some kind of action plan for our family.
4.Lastly, I do think we need to continue to live as lightly as possible. We need to conserve what we can. We need to reach out to our communities and teach conservation. The amount of ignorant apathy out there is huge and it's time to take it on.
This is is, the first big eco-tsunami. We either let it drown us or we learn to ride the wave.
M
The way I see it, there are 3 outcomes in this for humans:
1. There is no future for humans. Nothing we do now, can overcome the effects of global climate change, and no technology or advancements will take place soon enough, or on the scale needed to help civilisation survive. There will massive reduction in human numbers, if not completely wiped out. Anyone who manages to survive, is certainly not living the way many take for granted now. There may be small pockets of the world that can physically sustain human life, but it will be void of the intricacies needed to create & maintain societies. Life will suck big time. (The Earth will be OK, though, it may take a while for it to rebalance itself and evolve to suit the new conditions, but it will possibly prosper without humans around stuffing things up!)
2. The future for humans will be based on the ability of man to adapt to the new conditions & build 'biosphere' type set up's, but which only select humans can live in. Many humans will die, because they lived in the wrong area, or their countries were too poor in wealth and resources. The only way to develop suitable large scale habitats, will be by foregoing many things currently considered 'essential' by g'ments (medical research, war, advancements in transport etc.) as we will need the money, resources and intelligence being put into those, to entirely focus on technology to create habitats that protect us from what's going on outside. Governing bodies will need to seriously get their shit together, and authoritative systems will go global. But really, once humans feel 'safe' about their existence again, they will probably go right back to their usual crap... humph! (Earth may continue to decline in 'health' but humans won't care, because they've got it all worked out, so whatever happens 'out there', the technology will adapt life in the bubble. Perhaps, without humans living directly on it, it may even start to get better).
3. Humans will be OK. The conditions on Earth will return to a balance suitable for human life. The atmosphere is a self regulating system, that may go through some periods of adjustment (that will affect alot of humans, and in certain areas, the population will be reduced) but on the whole, humans learn to adapt, how to treat the Earth better, and there will be more balance between the current extremes of lifestyle, standards of living and wealth currently found on Earth. Nations will need to work together. Humans will realise the fragility of their place on Earth, and will forego their narcissistic tendencies, to always make sure that Earth gets treated right. It will be a blend between 'technology' and 'natural living'. With 'simple living' concepts being normal daily life for all people on Earth, but with technological advancements on working with nature. Doesn't really seem possible, but let's call it 'Green Technology'. (The Earth will be happy that those little buggers down there who kept trying to fight the system, have realised who's the boss!)
So, how do I think I should prepare, as an individual... head towards self sufficiency and sustainable living, learn survivalist skills, lobby governments around the world to step up, advocate frugal living and encourage others in the community to prepare too, and have a fulfilled life in between all that!
Never underestimate the human will to survive. It wasn't too many decades ago when climate scientists were predicting a worldwide ice age that was going to make the planet uninhabitable...
The fact of the matter is we can only control what we can control. I'm going to choose to live as responsibly as I can and feel good about that. If a giant flood or a drought takes me out in the end, what can I do? Life is fleeting.
I don't get worked up about doomsday predictions because frankly, they are mostly wrong. Scientists are not usually very good at predicting the future...
"If, indeed, making an attempt to reduce consumption and emissions really amounts to assuaging our own guilt, keeping us busy and making us feel we have a purpose regardless of how useful it is, why bother?"
I feel like that's precisely why we SHOULD bother. If the situation is effed, and we ought to have started adapting in the 1960s, then what else can we do besides assuage our own guilt, keep busy, and do things that make us feel we have a purpose? If the ship is going down, I'm going to continue living the best possible life according to my principles that I can do.
Some people worship science and think it will solve any problems that come - be it peak oil or global warming or exceeding the carrying capacity of the planet. In this case, it almost sounds as if you are worshipping science and thinking that 'it' knows what the upcoming changes are going to be.
THAT is where I disagree with you. It seems as if you have become attached to this one model of what the planet will be like in 40 to 90 years.
I'm working on a Buddhist-like non-attachment to any one model of the future ... and instead blowing my non-attachment by clinging to an approach. That approach is learning to adapt.
So while I am doomer to my Generalized Anxiety Disordered soul and see the Bottleneck coming (as in the blog at Survivalacres, no less), my inspiration tends to be more John Michael Greer's short stories of the future. Specifically, the short story series in his blog towards the end of 2006. It followed 3 generations of a family thru' energy collapse and climate clange. And then DIFFERENT climate change. With promises of climate change to come.
Adaptation in nature means having a large gene pool. Adaptation - to me - in peak everything and climate change is more like sucessful investing: you don't have all your eggs in one basket (even when the Madoff basket looks so very good on the outside).
I'm doomer enough that I don't see humans as willing to make hard decisions to cut carbon emmissions or use less fossil fuels if they have ANY choice in the matter. Hell, America has known the risk factor in obesity for over a generation now and we keep getting fatter. This is one hell of a data point.
So all I can reasonably do is learn to adapt to whatever comes, and teach that to all who are willing to learn it.
Fern
IMO, the only thing you can do is be willing to adapt. The only thing that keeps me from totally losing my mind over this is that it *won't* happen overnight. Hopefully just a little bit of foresight will be enough that those of us who are willing to change will be able to figure out what to do... although I keep thinking, I'm only getting older, and I don't know if I will be *able* to change when I'm sixty or seventy. Ugh.
I'll fess up... the quote was mine. And I still feel that way. I'd like to see more data, from somewhere other than New Scientist (no offense to them) before I panic. Mostly my statement was related to the fact that my area will EITHER be flooded or in a drought. Can we get more specific before I panic?
In regards to enjoying life, living simply makes me enjoy life more. That's how I'll continue to live for as long as I can.
As far as learning about our future, how to survive, and educating others, that's what I do for a living. While I don't write about it on my blog, I'm constantly reading and learning about our future.
However, as an educator, I feel that scare tactics are not the answer. Panic is not the answer.
Deanna, it sounds like you've just got the doom religion ;-). This is good, I guess, for me personally since now you'll stop thinking I'm such a kook ;-), but take a few breaths.
Several issues arise.
1. Speaking as the founder of the Riot for Austerity, it was always meant as a political and public action to move opinion - ie, if a few of us could reduce our impact by 90% without any help from the government, the idea that it made it clear that the rest of us could do it with that help. Has it worked? No, and I don't know that I really expect it to, but it is an attempt. But the point was always that something like the Riot is designed to address the whole "no one could do that" rather than as the solution - government involvement is a given. Whether it will ever happen or not, I don't know, but you do what you can.
2. While climate change can happen and has happened in as little as year from the fossil record, even after the tipping points, things are likely to be variable and one of the keys is going to be living sustainably in the present and adapting gradually. That is, there's no reason for me to start farming for extreme drought, when the present action of climate change is to give us much more snow and rain - and some prediction models suggest that this will continue for decades in the Northeast.
Agave I plant now will be dead from too much waterlogging. I can plant adaptive tree species, that can tolerate drought, but they also have to tolerate my current conditions.
It doesn't necessarily make sense either to relocate everyone to Siberia or the arctic today - that would create a crisis we're not prepared to deal with, and they aren't ready for agriculture ;-). We don't have any choice but to respond as things change.
Moreover, I've been reading this stuff for some years now, and have seen hundreds (and I do mean hundreds) of climate science models - they do not all look exactly like the New Scientist one, and I'd really suggest you look at as many as possible. For example, in many cases, some areas actually become wetter over time, and remain that way, because the now open arctic allows moisture to be picked up and transmitted. The situation is complex, and all we can do is choose our locations with the best information we've got - which IMHO, requires we look at as many models as possible. Among others, I'd suggest the GISS drought models, and University of Victoria's, which are somewhat different, and help us get a fuller picture. Don't get me wrong - my claim is not that NS is totally wrong, just that as much information as possible is necessary to making good decisions. You seem to have fixed on this one map.
So what makes sense today may not make sense in a decade - but those of us intent on making sure we don't starve can't simply say "ok, today we're going to shift to micro-drought farming. Instead, we have to watch and deal with the conditions we have now, while experimenting with food production models that will work in other situations, and also with mitigation techniques - for example, you quote Lovelock, who has also observed that the one possible strategy that might work would be massively raising the capacity of soils to hold carbon through terra preta and raising humus levels - which means that the best thing most of us can do right now might be to garden and add a lot of organic material to our soils, while not tilling.
I guess I get the sense that you think that no one else has thought about this stuff ;-). Trust me, it has come up before.
3. I agree with you that in many cases, cattle will be a bad idea - although as long as we have prairie, we could produce of protein while delaying a dustbowl by grazing buffalo or cattle on them. There's no easy one answer. But there will always be lands too rocky and too steep to till, and grazing animals on them makes sense. So does raising animals on garden wastes - yes, we'll be eating a lot less meat, but that won't happen instantly, and it won't be none. But yes, our old meat habits are going to disappear.
4. People have farmed in hot and dry places for most of human history - and one of the lessons of Kenya's Greenbelt movement and many other cultures is how important arboriculture is to stopping desertification - the right tree species, and the wise and careful use of water can reduce local surfact temperatures dramatically - and hold soils to prevent erosion. The reality is that while micro agriculture is going to be important, and cities are going to have to produce much more of their own food. But we're also going to need farms - so make sure that areas can produce as much food as possible in the long term is essential.
As for the question of why we do what we do - well, I hope it will have an impact, but if not, I think Dmitry Orlov's point about falling out of windows makes a lot of sense - part of why we should make our cuts and change our lives is because it is a lot easier to fall out of a first story window than a fourth - that is, the lower we go, the more comfortable we get with living with less and a lower impact life, the better we'll do when it is forced on us one way or another.
For those with a religious or spiritual bent, there's also the point that sometimes the question can't be answered by whether we succeed or fail, but by what we tried to do.
I could go on, but I already have ;-). I think the issue is this - we can't get straight from theah to heah, as they say where I'm from. That is, the process of dealing with what's coming down the pike is a process of constant flexibility and adaptation. That's not to say that some of us shouldn't, as my husband puts it, get the hell out of Vegas, but it does mean that we can't simply put into practice now what we expect for the future, but must gradually come up to meet the future.
Sharon
Yes, what we do or what we don't do, whatever the case may be, does contribute to and accelerate global warming.
On the other hand, the science teacher in me thinks part of the whole thing is a natural earth process. The earth is going to do what it is going to do without consulting us, the grand human race.
We can slow change down a bit, but in the end, I believe the Earth is in charge and we're not going to stop anything that isn't already thrown into full motion.
Does that give us carte blanche to do whatever the hell we want to do? No. We should still be an environmentally responsible race of humanity and take care of the Earth.
But like Fern pointed out above, we know obesity is horrible for our health, yet obesity is a growing problem that gets bigger every single year. We human beings do not heed "advice" very well.
I hate to be so apathetic about it, but I don't think there's much we can do to avoid the planet warming up, or cooling down, for that matter.
In general, I believe that my own push to change how we live, use less energy and take care of our own needs stems more from the desire to be self-sufficient in uncertain times rather than the mistaken impression that somehow, someway, my using a clothesline is magically going to solve the energy crisis. At this point, I'd say any environmental benefit is a bonus, especially if it inspires others to do the same, but it's not a primary goal.
I'm all for adapting in place as much as possible because, let's face it, two or three or six billion people are not going to pack up and move to brand new urban centers in the Arctic Circle (built by whom? with what funds? under whose flag?) in the next fifty or sixty or even one hundred years. Logistically, I find the idea completely untenable. That leaves a whole lot of us left where we are, figuring out ways to adapt to a situation that changes all the time, gradually or suddenly. I'm doing what I can do in small steps to deal with what is happening now. As much as I'd love to obsess on what may or may not come in a few decades, right now my problem is where to corral my backyard chickens now that I know that they can't coexist with my new garden boxes. Banana trees or no banana trees? And where should I plant that key lime that's outgrowing that pot? These, today, are the questions. Tomorrow? Something else!
RE: Scare tactics.
I hate scare tactics and fear mongering too, BUT it's not like we've responded on a large scale to common sense.
Humans, en masse, seem to lack prudence and are prone to apathetic passivity.
And we are hitting crunch time, in my opinion, where we need to get it together and fast. So if it takes making climate change into a Dark Shadows type soap opera, so be it.
M
Fern and TheNormalMiddle -- I know this is way off topic, but there have actually been a lot of studies lately showing that obesity is not particularly harmful, and that in fact having some spare fat is actively beneficial as you get older. There are many, many healthy fat people and many many unhealthy thin people, as well as the other way around. I'd recommend this: http://kateharding.net/but-dont-you-realize-fat-is-unhealthy/ for a good synopsis.
Hiya Crunch. ow. Yeah, it's a shock when it REALLY hits you - hey, this isn't a game, This crap is real.
And it's not simple, nor easy to comprehend or analyze. A big part of that is that human population is driving most of the changes and problems- and we, as humans, understand ourselves very very poorly.
And we are not in control of our actions as a species. That sucks pretty big.
I would >strongly< recommend that you study up on the "Transition Towns" movement; Rob Hopkins' movement launched in the UK, and now growing almost exponentially world-wide.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transition_Towns
Rob is just exceptionally good stuff.
There's a group in your state.
Essentially - their response to Doom is "ok, let's get to work, then." And they are. They wait for no one- not gov't, not local support- they go. Then the gov't joins them; that's already happening.
It'll cheer you up. They're really smart.
I think Parma Powerdown nails it with points 3 and 4. A lot of us are working steadily away at 4, but I don't see too many addressing #3, which is one of the main points I was trying to make.
Clearly, things won't change overnight. It will take years of some gradual changes punctuated by some rapid ones. So, there's definitely time. But, when people are making decisions about not only where to live for the long term or what to get into business doing (not only for themselves, but for their children and grandchildren's benefits), we need to look at the various models out there.
True, it's difficult to ascertain what will happen - the climate models are a moving target and will continue to be so. In looking at the Impact Assessment for WA State, the possible temperature changes has a wide range, but the underlying message is that, regardless of where we end up on that range, it's still bad. Sure, the 10 degrees F higher end of the range is worse than the 3 degrees, but the impact, even at the lowest levels will be enormous.
Regional climate models for WA show increases in extreme high precipitation and also show a larger increase in extreme daily heat and precipitation events in some locations than the global climate models suggest. So, knowing what's in store for your area is extremely important.
Greenpa - I have read The Transition Handbook, but it seems to me that they haven't taken much of the long term climate changes into consideration. It seems more like an "adapting in place" kumbaya community love-in:
"Central to the Transition Town movement is the idea that a life without oil could in fact be far more enjoyable and fulfulling than the present 'by shifting our mind-set we can actually recognise the coming post-cheap oil era as an opportunity rather than a threat, and design the future low carbon age to be thriving, resilient and abundant.'"
What about adaptation to a moving climate target? But, mostly it's the ridiculousness of the local currency business that sinks the Transition Towns for me.
I don't think it's beneficial to dwell on what might happen 50 years down the line. My son (and youngest child of 3) was born in 1982. Born on December 23rd, he's known for many years now that the Mayan End of Civilization occurs 2 days before his 30th birthday. I think pondering that thought has made him unnecessarily cynical.
Individually, none of us have been promised immortality, as you surely know from the grueling reality of your husband's illness. As a species, we've had a fairly good run. If one or two more generations are all we have left on earth, maybe your grandchild will be chosen to start a colony on another planet. Tomorrow's iffy enough without worrying 50-100 years into the future.
I intend to keep lightening my footprint as long as I'm alive. It's the best I can do and established the example for my children to do the best they can do, as well. That's all we can ask of ourselves.
I doubt there's any way "adapting in place kum ba yah" could be anything other than a jab at me and my stuff on this, along with transition, which is fine.
But it bugs me that you've made a big deal (on my blog in prior discussion) about how you wouldn't even consider moving to a more affordable place with a long term plan, but you are pissed off that I'm writing about "adapting in place kum bah yah" Yo, Crunch, I do adapting in place because *some people* are going to stay where they are, even if it isn't the best choice ever (and maybe it is for you, I don't know enough to judge). And they deserve the best chance to survive too, even if their adaptations happen on the fly - even if they adapt for the first ten years of the crisis and then have to move. And the only places human beings live will probably not be the poles, despite Lovelock's rhetoric. I'm actually fairly optimistic about upstate NY - not that it will look like it does now, but that it isn't a bad place to be - although after years of research, I know enough to be prepared to be wrong.
I actually have a good sized section of my book on where to live, and a big chunk of it talks about water and climate. One of the most important things I say in the "where to live" section is that you should know what the climate predictions are. And despite my horn tooting, I'm not the only person. Joe Romm spends a lot of his time on that subject in _Hell and High Water_ and some in his Grist posts, to give one example. Nobody is talking about it...except the people who have been.
I guess what annoys me is the sense that you just got religion, and now the rest of us sinners are doing it wrong ;-).
Sharon
@Sharon
Saw that you had a great post up about this very thing this morning and just now had the time to read it. (Do you mind posting a link to it? I think it is required reading for everyone.) Lots to think about and no easy answers. Particularly given so much of the uncertainty about we are facing ahead. Wildly differing projections from all the "experts" don't help. I've seen projections here for Houston that range from desert to tropical. Who knows. Given what we are already seeing with ice melts, chances look good however that I'll be living much, much closer to the beachfront if I stay here.
Planning for the personal changes is big enough, but one of the frightening things to me is the realization that our governments and other organizations aren't even thinking about any of this in terms of a response to climate/energy change. Still. We hear the scientific fright (at least a few of us) but we don't have people talking about what need to happen when South Florida is underwater. Or where we are going to get the energy and resources to actually moves a few hundred million people. Or...
Ugh. Better lie down and think some happy thoughts.
FWIW -- I didn't get the impression that The Crunchster was directing comments specifically to you. But I don't know the history. And everyone knows that I enjoy a rousing blog comment "discussion" from time to time.
Mark
I think the way of human nature is to want to feel useful so as climate change accelerates, it's better for those of us in the know who have learned to adapt to be able to teach others new skills to help themselves and their families is very needed. The Transition Movement is very big here were I live in Colorado and knowing and using many of these skills already, I keep feeling like it's time for me to start teaching what I know to others just waking up to what's really coming down the pike.
It also seems like a bartering system will become more prevalent as time goes on and our dollar becomes worthless. People will need to come together more in community to learn to live well with less as it becomes more of a localized economy in the future.
We already know there will be mass migrations of people as well as millions of people dying due to climate change. I moved away from where my family has been located for generations 15 years ago because of climate change visions I had for many years. I live in the area where I was directed to live. I trust that if I ever need to move again I will be shown that.
Another skill people need to learn is how to listen to and trust their intuition more as it will always guide you to what is best for you.
I think on some level, people have made their choices as to what they want to do for themselves and their families. Many don't want to deal with much and so on a subconscious level they choose to leave the planet quickly when the going gets tough - mass exoduses happen during weather catastrophes. I've actually had this convo with several friends years ago who said they don't want to live when this situation really intensifies since they know many of their family members won't be able to make it in a tougher environment. So they choose to still live on the coast or on a fault line near extended family and say if they die so be it. They are not interested in preparing for anything.
This is a choice we all will be deciding on some level but obviously many reading this info will choose to live in the newer ways and will migrate to where they feel safe when the time comes, learn more new skills, deal with the changes, etc.
I just wanted to comment on the topic of grazing cows, I think getting rid of the cows will only help the planet since they release methane and consume huge resources to process them for food and really, we should be growing Hemp in all the same places where other food cannot grow and only cows can graze.
Hemp is a very hardy, highly nutritious plant where the seeds are high in protein, essential fatty acids, the fiber is used for making (mildew resistant) cloth and twine, it's a fast growing plant that requires no pesticides and can do well with poor soil and low water. It grows well in Canada and would do great here in my state instead of all those grazing cows! If only our gov't would legalize it to grow here!
I think I started the kum-ba-ya, but in reference to Africa. And I agree that I don't think Crunhcy was making any pointed references to Sharon.
Sharon, the first thing I thought of when I read the NS article is 'why is Sharon in NY?'
I will have to track down your book and find out the long answer,but, if you see this, what is the short answer? Because I may die of curiosity before I get the book.:)
M
In terms of moving to a different location...
I will not move until it is absolutely required for my survival. I have lots of reasons to stay... my family has lived on the same farm since the mid-1660's, my husband's family has been here the same amount of time. We just built our house on my great-grandmother's land. I feel a historical and biological connection to this land that I think many people in our society could not understand.
That said... If I had to go, I'd go. My ancestors left their homes and made a new one, and I'm certain that I could do the same. But I'm certainly not going to freak out over someone else's interpretation of the data and leave now.
Good grief, Sharon. I'm not referring to you, I was referring to the Transition Town idea and what I've read about it. I think it's a great concept for dealing with peak oil, but I didn't get the impression that it was suitable for dealing with long-term climate change as was suggested by Greenpaps. But, then again it's been a while since I've read it, so it's highly probable I missed something.
I think your adapting in place stuff is really intelligent and well thought out, keeping climate change in mind as well as a whole host of other problems.
Regarding previous comments on your older posts - my issue with staying where you are was based on making certain economic assumptions. The point I was making in those comments a while back was that, without financial solvency, it makes it a heck of a lot harder to have a place to adapt in. Anyway, I don't want to beat a dead horse, we've already been around on that one and I think you've done a good job of incorporating the financial aspect into your discussions.
Why in the world would I be pissed that you are writing about adapting in place? That's what millions and billions of people will be doing whether they want to or not. Myself included. I'm just not jumping on the transition town bandwagon as a panacea to resolve the problems that economic, energy and climate issues present, mostly because it reminds me too much of hippy communes. I know it's more practical than that, but I'm cynical about people and their ability to change their behavior.
As far as "nobody is talking about it" goes I was referring us lesser blogs. Not the peak oil ones, but the green living blogs - I don't see a lot of long term thinking of climate change going on. The long-term planning is generally related to the more imminent issues of powering down.
I'm sorry to have poked you in your persecution complex button, but it was unintentional.
Bucky - A number of states have been working on climate adaptation plans. You can see a listing of them here. Alas, I think Texas isn't really on the list yet on planning.
On one hand, I'm glad to see that this is being done, but on the other, these findings should be more widely known to their constituents and I don't think that's been the case.
My fear with the 'doom-and-gloom' is that it can lead to paralysis. The feeling that nothing I do matters anyway, so why bother? And I think that's exactly the wrong thing right now. Perhaps I'm being naive, but I'd rather focus on the little bits I can do, and prepare in ways that are manageable to me, than spend my life worrying about exactly what might happen.
One of the few things that I've learned is that my anticipatory fears often tend in the wrong direction - that is, the stuff I worry about a lot ends up being not such a big deal as the stuff I never consider. So yes, I read these things, and I consider them, but I'm not going to buy land in Western Antarctica quite yet.
Crunchy: I am trying to do TT in my area. I don't know that it's perfect, but it provides a good toolbox for community activism and we have to start somewhere. Also TT really allows individuals and towns the freedom to adopt TT however it makes sense for them.
But no, there is no long term analysis as part of TT. However, I don't know if it needs to do that, at least not as part of the initial phase. There's so much work to do just to get things immediately sustainable that long term is not the priority. Once TT is really established, then the long term timeline could come into play.
M
Oh and I forgot to mention that one of the issues with scenarios like the one NS presents is that it ignores the changes between the present and the future. Like the environment is a porsche that goes from 0-60 in one nanosecond and nothing inbetween matters. That's shortsighted I think with the result that it is probably leaving out vital information about what we need to do to adapt successfully.
Who knows? We may have issues with certain species flourishing as predators and environmental limits disappear. That's the kind of info we need for the medium term because it's not like we hit a 4C temp increase overnight. I want to know what happens at 1C, 2C, 3C etc... because it all has an impact.
M
Crunchadoodle:
Thanks for the link to the listing of states' initiatives. Texas isn't really doing much of anything but talking a little about the potential concerns that might maybe exist over some reports about the possible but not certain need to slightly curtail the growth in the alleged so-called "greenhouse" gas emissions.
Meanwhile, we keep building massively larger highways and more sprawl to keep people buying and driving those Suburbans.
Houston's mayor a few years ago unveiled his plan to reduce City emissions of greenhouse gas. Two items on the list of things to do: moving to more energy efficient lightbulbs and replacing all vending machines in city buildings with more efficient models. Both things, of course that are going to be a big financial boon to some lucky and well-connected vendor. (The vending machine crock will likely increase ghg because you know -- it takes a lot of fossil fuel energy to build those things).
And that was the plan!
I glanced at the Florida plan and it was mostly about the need to look at the issues, which is at least something.
Still, given the possibly huge downside to climate change is wrong to expect something at least just a little more serious from our governments?
Parma - There's a book, Six Degrees, (I haven't read it, I have a hold on the library for it) that goes through and says what to expect as we go up each degree.
You are right about natural predation and the issues of being overtaken with species who find new niches and flourish out of control.
Buckster - Yes, FL and other states are sorely lacking on the initiative. Take a peek at WA's and you'll see a whole lot more useful info...
Hiya Crunchy. I think you might want to take a look at Transition Towns again, as you say, you might have missed something. My own impressions are VERY good; but then I've known Rob for several years, and may be biased. :-)
He does have a personal blog, not well known, but not a secret; transitionculture.org. Instant peeks into what he's doing. It really is NOT a Rob Hopkins cult thing- he's very unassuming, stays way in the background. But there are THOUSANDS of people around the world changing the way they live, because of it- and working on COMMUNITY.
Communities that can work together- incidentally - may be the best, maybe the only, response to long range climate change that can save lives. They do talk about it in the back rooms. That's what I was thinking. And though they grew out of a Peak Oil focus- they've long since expanded that.
Time Magazine, incidentally, does not think the town currencies idea is silly-
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1865467,00.html?iid=perma_share
So when are you and I, and Sharon, going into that room? I need to know when to order my body armor.
:-)
I want to thank everyone here for the discussion happening over this. My husband and I read this article yesterday and had a talk over dinner that played out almost like your blog post, Crunch, and we came to the same two questions: is it too late already? Now what?
This morning, I added another shot of...denial? Pragmatism? Academics' urge to consult multiple sources? and basically decided I would hope and pray the models are wrong, and sally forth with living lightly and showing others how to do so. Probably at an increased pace.
I wholeheartedly agree with Anna Banana: feeling like there is some purpose and meaning to my life and actions is literally the difference between life and death for me. The single most depressing thing I can think of is to be living a life where nothing I do can possibly matter. I may be ministering to they dying (or planning doomed escape attempts) in a global Auschwitz that few will escape, but doing so will help me go peacefully to my own death.
I am too tired, emotionally, to care about green as the first priority. I care about frugal. I care about "will we eat next winter". I care about "can I be sure my kids will have the clothes they NEED". I care about not freezing, about not losing our health insurance, about my husband keeping his job.
I think it is important to try to keep caring about the environment and such, simply because even if we can't reverse things, maybe we can keep from making them any worse. Maybe we can clean up a little bit of our mess.
I think we have a moral responsibility to at least try.
So, despite feeling overwhelmed and incredibly stressed, I'm still working at my own life. Expanding the gardening this year, and the kids want to start sorting out recycling from the trash (and they're way excited any time we can use something again instead of throwing it away. "Re-use!" they shout and then scamper off to do something with whatever treasure it happens to be.)
I dunno. I feel a bit hopeless, but at the same time I am full of hope. It makes no sense. But then, nothing much in these times makes sense.
I also wanted to comment about the 'small blogs' and them in denial. I think that's a pretty fair assessment- I read an entry on a blog in the past few weeks that was about ideas for a low-maintenance lawn. All the suggestions and solutions were for ways to make a lawn decorative and visually appealing, with as little physical labor and hassle as possible, in a water-wise etc sort of way. Not even one comment in it mentioned edible landscaping or how gardening can eliminate the need for a gym membership.
I've been spending so much time reading blogs such as Crunchy's and Sharon's and Greer's, that I'd forgotten there was this whole segment of "green" and "eco-designer" etc out there that is freaking CLUELESS.
It's sobering when you really think about the implications.
Hey, don't judge the 'freakin clueless' eco-trendy greenies unless you are an eco-saint yourself! Everyone's got to start somewhere... the lesser blogs may be the stepping stone to get people involved, who could end up saving the planet!
Whatever our individual contribution is to fixing the problems, or handling the future, getting all panicky and narky isn't going to help...
I wanted to add that sometimes you need to leave doom & gloom predictions behind and focus on the present. Sure, it's important stuff and we should always keep in mind the impact of what we do now (or did) on the future. But there are plenty of people out there wishing they had the luxury of worrying about climate change, instead of the tragedies they are facing in their personal lives. Be it bushfire victims or victims of natural disaster, those losing jobs and homes, facing poor health or battling disease, those facing war or violence, those whose human rights are being violated, those unable to protect and provide for their families.
Seriously, Maeve, if you have a problem with someone wanting to 'grow low-maintenance lawn' you need to get off your computer and start making a difference. Not just to the environment, but maybe to those currently living on this earth who only wish they had the luxury to ponder the future...
CC, we all need to wallow in self pity, or get amped up on anxiety at times, and when you are sick, these things can affect you more, but I hope you can get past worrying if what you are doing, or have done, is even going to help. I hope you can turn it around and keep inspiring & challenging people. OK, so who knows if we are making any difference, but if it makes you happy...
In my own life, I guess I'm using the comparison to the economic crisis: If you were careful about debt, etc., in the past few years, you are in better shape now than if you hadn't been, but you may still suffer some set backs. The same, to me, is true about living sustainably and relying less on fossil fuels, etc. You'll be better off whether the climate changes drastically or not. So why not go ahead and work toward a more sustainable lifestyle? I'm not a Rioter, so probably not going to lessen my impact by 90%, but 30-40% is still helpful for my descendents and the environment.
In the end, though, I'm destined to die, and when I do, I want to know that I left a good legacy. Did I serve other people? Was I loving toward my family? Did I take time to enjoy the gift of my life? Did I do my best to live a God-honoring life? The best you can do is the best you can do, and the best you can do is enough. You just have to let go of the rest. I don't think it's complacency to come to that place in your life.
A couple of random unconnected thoughts.
I was reminded by a comment from the poster from Alaska that mentioned the shorter growing season. Which is something that I often think about when I see all those maps like the one in the report mentioned that show us living much closer to the poles because they will be warm and wet, which crops need to grow. Unfortunately no one ever points out that crops also need sunlight and the further north or south you go, the less sun you have. So the lower your crop yield. An acre of land in Northern Canada isn't equal to an acre in Kansas in terms of yield. Never will be unless climate change somehow shifts the earth's axis a few degrees.
Crunchy, you mentioned in one comment that one problem you have with the Transition Towns is because of the local currency issue. That has always seemed far-fetched to me as well, but I'll admit as I watch the daily financial meltdown I keep thinking that a local currency not controlled by the greedy mobs on Wall Street and K Street might be a nice thing to have.
A few thoughts that came up in family discussions from my reading this week:
1) According to this op-ed article our ability to eat locally produced food is under threat. If we are planning on a "back to Earth" movement we'd better check this out and have our say.
2) I read a lot of talk about the importance of trading when things get tough. Isn't this the same as the gray and black markets and, if so, aren't these susceptible to control by local law enforcement?
Life is fleeting, enjoy it, while living according to moral and altruistic standards as much as you can. At the end of the day we all care about our own survival (I use 'own' in the broad sense to include those we care about).
Allison, is it just me - I clicked back link after link after link in that article, and could not find ONE bill actually referenced. I could have GOOGLED the info better than trying to follow that author.
Fernwise--the bill is referenced at the end and linked. I will be watching this. What I did not like about the op-ed is, it wasn't very specific about what the law would do. But I have heard buzz about this in a few different places and am waiting to see what legs it grows.
M
There is loads to say about all this, but I think in the end it can be summarized by what Lovelock said "Enjoy life while you can" (which is something I guess we should be going regardless as in "carpe diem". LOL :)). And I would add enjoy life ethically while you can, which includes environmental issues and social issues (as in helping others in need etc.). That way we will not be making things worse and who knows we might even be helping change things. And even if in the end it amounts to nothing, at least it will have been a good and satisfying life (in my opinion :)) Fear only messes things up.
Cheers,
Andrea
Crunchy--before you worry too much about the New Scientist article see if you can obtain the work of Ewing and Donn on how glaciation happens from the 50s and 60s. You'll have to find a library with good archives. They published in Science.
I'll sum it up briefly: open artic ocean leads to increased percipitation in the form of snow at high altitudes leads to glaciation. This is, according to my family paleontologist, still the best theory explaining how the recent (geologicly speaking)glaciers formed, and global warming may trigger this effect again.
So now, which panic would you like, the desert or the ice sheet, and would you like fries with that?
There is just so much we really don't understand about climate that anyone that says "This is how it will happen" is at best overconfident.
What can a person do about it? Part is to prepare yourself mentally and emotionally: there might come a time when no matter how important that peice of land is to your family, you have to leave it. Part is to observe what actually happens, so you can regognize when you need to stay or go. And part is to take a deep breath, maybe a bubble bath and a glass of wine, read a candy book, and then get back to what you are called to do right now, whatever and wherever it may be.
Thanks, Parma - I see the bill numbers. I still wish the author had links to the actual bills, but I'm just lazy that way!
Hey, here is a good link: http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/03/02/global-warming-pause.html
This is a different view of climate change and shows that there's more holes in the science than the New Scientist article presented.
HOWEVER, the NOAA guy they quote seems to run counter to the NOAA map I recently posted on the Powerdown blog (http://parmapowerdown2.blogspot.com/2009/03/global-warming-in-cool-cleveland.html). The map shows overall global warming so for another NOAA person to say something different is confusing to say the least!
M
I am actually feeling encouraged. I thought we were going to get a lot farther into the crisis before the mainstream media noticed or politicians started doing anything about it. National Geographic this month was like The Peak Oil Issue - a tar sands article and a big one about where Americans actually generate energy and how much we could cut back with no technological changes.
I feel like we're right on the cusp of a big change in public perception in the US - and we're the big roadblock, globally.
I don't think it's too late to mitigate the change - climate change is already happening,we can't undo all of it or go back to the alternate reality where we started weaning ourselves off carbon in 1967. But we can make things less bad by the actions we take right now.
And I'm trying to cut back now for myself and my kid, too - so we're not so desolate when it's not a choice anymore, so we have the equipment we think we'll need, so we already have a ritual of riding the bus, so we have beans & bulgar wheat recipes we like, so we can maybe convince some of the people around us we're actually serious.
The biggest flaw in this whole argument is the assumption that the transition will be smooth and orderly. Something you can prepare for. I.e. people will start migrating north and produce food there, while leaving the arid areas for solar production.
A look at history shows differently. This is not the first time human populations are running out of resources. Things like this have happened many times before, perhaps not on a global scale, but certainly on a large enough scale to draw some conclusions.
What we see in times like these is widespread turmoil, unrest, wars and large scale destruction. We also see a significant and very protracted drop in people's standard of living.
We should expect no less in the coming 50 years. A new middle ages is probably the "best case" scenario we can hope for.
@fhe
You raise an interesting point. And one with witch I'm inclined to agree. I read Jared Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed a few years ago and it scared the crap out of me. (Very good book, other than crap issue, but not as good as his first.)
The fact is, as resources and opportunities shrink, there are going to be enormous conflicting interests between regions, groups, countries. This inherent conflict is especially troubling for such a diverse country as the US where we are already so deeply divided along many social fault lines.
As the environmental and energy pressures increase, it is going to get ugly fast.
To despair or not to despair, that is the question.
I've decided not to despair and to just keep doing my bit. It may only be a tiny drop in the ocean, but maybe, just maybe, my own actions might have an effect, or might influence other people. And if not, at least I tried to save something for my own children's future. If I did give in to the despair I'd become paralysed by the enormity of it all. Keep on encouraging the discussion, and challenging us to try harder. Thanks
I have to admit, I was shocked into speechlessness (a big thing for me, I mean read some of my comments here, let along my blog), when a long time friend of mine looked at me with a stright face and in all seriousness told me how "the theory" of global warming was "arrogance" on the part of the human race. That we meager humans, a blip in the earth's life history are arrogant to believe that we could cause such devistation.
When I could finally form words again I said something lame, like how it's not a thoery, but proven scientific fact, and basically all the scientisits agree it's happening. She argued, sighting a book she'd read, but I calmly told her there was a difference between a journalist and a scientist.
I'm digressing a bit here. But I was really shocked to learn that people are still thinking like this!
Thankfully I read an article in National Geographic (January, I think), and they talked about the "mice on ice" theory. One mouse can't really do much to crack the ice, and it's hard to get everyone moving in the same direction. But if enough mice get out there, doing little parts, each of them, eventally the ice will crack.
That gave me hope. Keep on doing the small things, and blogging about it to spread the word. We'll get there. All us little mice will get there!
Make sure the 'little eco things' you are doing make you happy, keep you healthy and save you money. Whatever the future holds, that way you've lived the best you can, while you can, and can be prepared as possible to protect and provide for your family.
An interesting documentary
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00hs8zp/Natural_World_20082009_A_Farm_for_the_Future/
I'm sure this post has calmed down a bit, but I had been meaning to post this comment and had not gotten to it. So, here ya go, My Two Cents. :)
I went white water rafting once. Our handsome, buff boat captain told us that if we stared at the rocks and thought about the rocks and worried about hitting the rocks, guess what would most definitely happen. We would most definitely hit those stinkin' rocks.
If instead, however, we thought about the spaces between the rocks. If we looked for the spaces and thought about the spaces and the water flowing throught the spaces and how it would carry us swiftly down the river and home safe, then we would most likely (no gauranties, mind) paddle right through those glorious spaces.
I should really take my own advise. *walks off pondering the spaces* :)
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